While the pension reform was presented this Monday to the Council of Ministers, was the presidential camp too optimistic? A few weeks ago, the executive went in search of the 40 votes missing from his advanced majority in the Assembly. And he thought he had found the martingale among the Republicans: in early January, at the cost of a few adjustments, the presidential camp bumped into the leaders of the LR, hoping to claim a majority of the votes of the 62 the right. parliamentarians Today, the calculation seems far from certain. Especially because internally, among the Macronists, a handful of MPs are now threatening to defect…
Within the Renaissance, five deputies have publicly threatened to vote against the text or to abstain: Barbara Pompili (Somme), Cécile Rilhac (Val d’Oise), Stella Dupont (Maine-et-Loire), Mireille Clapot (Drôme ) and Patrick Vignal. (Hérault). A count to which must be added those who are silent but do not think less of it. According to the estimates of the disgruntled group, there would be a total of 15 to 20 to be in the same line.
Macronie’s left wing is like unicorns – it doesn’t exist
From the top of its 51 deputies, MoDem currently has only one recalcitrant: the deputy for Loiret and deputy general secretary of the party, Richard Ramos. “ A personal initiative… », We regret the centrist group, without denying that the others are « in standby position Among Horizons’ Filipist allies, only Mayenne’s deputy, Yannick Favennec, played discordant music.
A small wind of freedom that certainly causes disorder, but does not affect the prognoses of the convinced Macronists: “ There may be internal debates, but no voice will be missing “, convinces a heavyweight of the group. A point on which, for once, the New Popular and Ecological Alliance (Nupes) seems to agree. A councilor from the left-wing alliance joked: Macronie’s left wing is like unicorns – it doesn’t exist. They make sleeve effects, but in the end they won’t lift a finger “.
The great unknown of the LR vote
In LR, the calculations are less definitive. On January 15, despite the instructions of their party leaders, 13 deputies stated in our columns that they did not want to vote for the reform. How many are there now? ” Today, less than half of the LR group will vote yeswants to believe one of the Republicans most hostile to reform. Of our 62 deputies, I see a maximum of 25 voters in favor “It assures a bravado, without, however, giving names. “ Throughout the debate in the Assembly, our parliamentarians will be questioned in their constituencies. There will be a gradual degradation “Based on the LR vote, he predicts.
Are these estimates artificially inflated or do they reflect reality? Within the majority, some prefer to avoid. ” I didn’t have fun counting myself dodge a renaissance parliamentarian. When others remain confident: We are in a good situation with LR. We must continue to build with them until the end supports a frame.
The impeachment motion: first test for the majority
In the eyes of some, on the right and on the left, the first test will come from the preliminary rejection motion, which will be examined in the Assembly as soon as the text lands in session, on February 6. If this motion were adopted, the text would be rejected in the Assembly and sent to the Senate. Subtlety of the procedure: even if several motions of rejection are presented, only one will be defended in the chamber. The choice of the group to wear it will be determined by… a draw. Not without consequences for the future. ” If the movement is carried by the rebels, it may be blocked “, anticipates a right-wing parliamentarian.
For Nupes, the arbitration has already taken place: each of the four parties (LFI, PS, EELV, GDR) will file a motion on their behalf. The group Freedoms, Independents, Overseas and Territories (LIOT) – whose president Bertrand Pancher opposes the reform – will discuss it this Tuesday in a group meeting.
This motion to dismiss can happen “Prophecies, excited, one of the deputies of LR who stands up against the reform. In the ranks of Nupes we are less optimistic, but still pragmatic. When voting on a rejection motion, it is impossible to delegate the vote, all participants must be present: ” All our MPs have a small cross in their diary. We told them: “Look out, let everyone be there!” “It explains a framework of the alliance.
The skeptics of the majority should not, a priori, add their voice. ” Of course not », assures one of them. “ This would prevent us from enriching the text “explains another. It proves that from the balance of power to the sling, there is a step that some are not willing to take.
Source : Le JDD